xG (expected goals) measures the quality of the chances created. It's great for understanding a team's attacking volume.
What xG answers
- How many goals "should" a team have scored?
- Was the result fair given the run of play?
What it doesn't answer
The chance that the match ends exactly 0-1. Two matches with the same total xG can have very different score distributions.
| Metric | Question it answers |
|---|---|
| xG | How many goals are expected in the match |
| Score probability | How likely each exact result is |
Common metrics talk about the whole match. To trade scores you need one number per score.
Using both together
Use xG to understand the context and score probability to decide the entry.
