Every possible score in a match has a probability. Added together, they make 100%. The odds are just the price the market puts on each one.
From odds to probability
The math is simple:
implied probability = 1 / odds
| Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 7.50 | 13.3% |
| 22.00 | 4.5% |
Reading the score matrix
A score matrix crosses each team's goals. Every cell is the chance of that exact result — 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and so on.
- Low probability cells are Lay candidates.
- High probability cells are Back candidates.
- Either way, what decides is the comparison with the odds.
A stat that confirms what you already believed isn't analysis. It's confirmation bias with numbers.
The most common mistake
Looking only at average goals. A match with 2.3 xG says little about the specific chance of 0-1. To trade scores, you need the number per score.
